Value of Baby Pairs
Omaha Eight-or-Better: Overestimating the Value of Baby Pairs
By Annie Duke
One of the biggest mistakes many players make is overestimating
the value of their small pairs. Small pairs (22 thru 88) really
don't have a lot of value in Omaha 8/b. This is for two main reasons.
First, when you flop a set the likelihood of there being an overset
is greatly increased by the mere fact that your opponents have four
cards in their hand instead of two. Set under set is always a situation
to be avoided. Second, and more importantly, is the fact that when
you flop a set you are putting one piece to a low on the board.
By this I mean that, by definition, if you flop a set of deuces
thru eights there is necessarily at least one low card on the board.
Why is this so bad? Because it greatly increases the likely the
board will qualify for low and that you will be getting half of
the pot only. Necessarily, if you get half of the pot instead of
the whole pot you are reducing the odds the pot is laying you by
half. Compare this situation to flopping a set of nines thru Kings.
Then just the opposite happens: you are removing a spot for a low
card to hit, thus increasing the likelihood that no low will qualify.
This is why high pairs are so much more powerful than baby pairs.
Because of this difference between high and low pairs, low pairs
actually weaken your hand rather than strengthen it. Even if your
cards are strongly related to the pair, you cannot play. So hands
like 8876 are completely unplayable. This is despite having lots
of straight possibilities, a possible set and two possible flushes.
When you make a straight there is almost always a low qualified
(e.g. the board is 456). When you make a flush it is never the nut
flush. And when you flop a set there is a likely low available and
it is rarely the top set. This is a hand you could fold in the big
blind to a raise. You would certainly fold it in the small blind.
To play a small pair, the other two cards must have very strong
low features and you must realize that the addition of the pair
only marginally improves the quality of your hand. As an example,
A336 is playable because of the strong low features (A36) with the
pair. Also, you have an ace high suit. But it is important to understand
that this hand is not much better than having just A36 with no fourth
card! In contrast A449 is only marginally playable because the low
feature A4, is very weak. The 9 is totally unrelated. The only thing
really going for this hand is the Ace-high suit. Because of this,
this is a hand you can call a raise with in the big blind. You can
call a raise out of the small blind if the raise has come from a
steal position. You can limp in late or in the small blind. And
you can raise from late when no one has entered in front of you.
But you should not otherwise enter the pot.
Hands like 2234 and 6623 are even worse than the above example.
Even though you have lots of low cards working, you will only flop
the nut low draw when an Ace hits and it is never a good idea to
be relying on exactly one card to hit the board. When you make flushes
with these hands they are never the nuts, unlike with the A449 example.
Your sets will always be weak and when you hit them there is a likelihood
of a low qualifying. These are hands with huge negative implied
odds. You will often end up chasing half the pot with the second
best hand and just paying off to the nuts, as when the board is
45K7Q. Even with the 2234 you still only have the third best low
(A2 and A3 beat you) and you have very far from the nut flush. You
will often be scooped in this pot yet you really have to pay it
off even so because you hand is a two-way hand-it could be best
for high or low. Therefore, these hands should only be played from
steal position or in the big blind. You should never call a raise
with these hands unless you are in the big blind. This is particularly
important since hands that raise in Omaha 8/b almost always contain
an Ace and this, by definition, takes away one of the four aces
you desperately need to flop!
Hands with small pairs and very weak low features are always unplayable
unless you are in the blind or in steal position. So 88A5 is absolutely
terrible. You have no suit, a small pair and a terrible low possibility.
665A is similarly bad even with the ace-high suit. Don't be fooled
into playing these hands just because you have two wheel cards or
an Ace high flush possibility. You are essentially playing with
only two useful cards in your hand, which is almost never a good
idea unless you have exactly A2.
Dec 19, 2003 by Annie Duke
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