Poker Odds and Probabilities
ODDS AND PROBABILITIES PART 2
By Dave Colclough of Bet365 Poker
*****************************
During this years World Series Of Poker, my diary documented what
I thought
was a slightly higher than average amount of times, that I ran into
Aces
whilst holding Kings. Typically, having waited 5 hours for a major
hand to
come along, this can be one of the most demoralising situations
in NLH
tournaments. Last month, I also made the final six of the biggest
event on
the European Tour: the WPT event at the Aviation Club on the Champs
Elysee
With 6 players left, and the ESPN cameras rolling, I picked up K,K
on
Surinder Sunars Big Blind. He sat there with A,A and duly doubled
up. Being
one of the greatest players of all time, he then proceeded to take
the
600,000 euro first prize. But I felt I gave him the lift up that
he needed,
just at the right time.
So I thought I would churn over the grey matter, and calculate
the odds of
walking into this confrontation. It's strange, but this is one statistic
I
have never seen printed anywhere.
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One often published poker statistic is that:
It is 16-1 that you will be dealt a poker pair (go to the back of
the
classroom if you assumed it was 12-1), and
It is 220-1 that you will be dealt any specific pair, such as Aces.
(I know
it can often feel like it is a lot longer odds than that!)
So when you are holding any indiscriminate hand (such as Kings,
or 7,2) it
is 220-1 that any one of your opponents has Aces. Heads up, it is
220-1. In
a six handed WPT final in Paris, it is 220-1 divided by 5 opponents:
44-1.
Not an unlucky coup at all! Again, although this probability may
be
interesting for those of us with dull lives, its usefulness is debatable.
It will be a rainy day on the moon before I pass kings pre-flop.
(Super-satellites excepted of course!)
A more useful statistic is that K,K is only a 2-1 favourite against
A,K.
The warning signs are there. An even much more useful statistic
is an Ace
will flop 23% of the time.
So, if you get cute with pre-flop Kings, the flop will kill your
action
almost a quarter of the time. The major dangers of slow playing
Kings
though, are:
An opponent with a pocket pair is about 15/2 to flop a set (or quads.)
Fortunately an opponent with two odd cards is almost 40-1 to flop
2 pair.
They may also have straight and/or flush possibilities though.
If your opponent flops a set on a low broken flop, he may well
bust you!
Early in NLH tournaments especially, you can make a little from
pocket
Kings, but quiet easily lose your whole stack.
The biggest crime though, is pocket Queens. I often see top players
smooth
call a pre-flop raise with this hand. I don't know if they are trying
to
outplay their opponents on the flop, or are just scared of pocket
Kings or
Aces. Personally, I think this is suicidal or at least a criminal
waste of
a good hand. I will always re-raise and try and get my whole stack
in the
middle before the flop.
As discussed earlier, the odds on pocket Kings or Aces being out
there are
variable depending on the number of dealt hands. The odds will be
at least
12-1 on a full table though.
Again this article has already outlined the dangers of a small
pair
out-flopping you.
More importantly though, the probabilities that an Ace or a King
will flop
is 43% of the time.
An Ace or a King on the flop obviously kills your action, prevents
you from
winning a much bigger pot, and often leads to you losing a medium
sized
one.
It's often best to keep the game simple. Just sticthe whole stack in, and
cross your fingers.
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