Play Winning Poker
WHAT'S IMPORTANT IN WINNING POKER - PART 4
by: Lou Krieger©
In Part 3 of this series we looked at recurring poker decisions,
as well as choices that are less commonly encountered, but are costly
when a wrong decision is made. Now we're ready to examine decision
trees, along with the single most important decision you'll encounter
anytime you play poker.
Why Risk/Reward Decisions are Tough Choices
Risk/reward decisions are tough because there's no recipe to follow
- in life or in poker. At the poker table it helps to reconstruct
the play of the hand and betting patterns, and understand your opponents'
playing styles. Without this kind of analysis, how else can you
determine if they are bluffing outright, betting hands worse than
yours, or wagering on powerful holdings?
Playing correctly under these circumstances requires a great deal
of judgment: the kind that comes from experience, not books. No
matter how skilled a player you eventually become, you'll never
reach the point where you always make these decisions correctly.
Don't worry; that's not important. Just be careful about the hands
you decide to play, err on the side of protecting yourself from
catastrophic mistakes, and you'll be on the right track.
Some Decisions are Important Because They Influence Subsequent
Actions
Choices can also be important because of their position on the decision
tree. Those that are first in a long sequence of subsequent choices
are always important, since those that follow are usually predicated
on your initial selection. Make a wrong move up front and you run
the risk of rendering each subsequent decision incorrect, regardless
of whatever else you might do. That's why the choice of which hands
you start with in poker is generally a much more critical decision
than how you play on future betting rounds. If you adopt an "...any
two cards can win" philosophy in hold'em, or start with stud
hands like 3 -3 -7 when your cards aren't live and there are aces
and faces to act after you, you have set yourself up for a disaster
that even the best players can not consistently overcome on later
rounds.
But regardless of how important it may be to choose your starting
cards with the greatest of care, there are even more important decisions
you'll make at the poker table. They are more important because
they are closer to the trunk of the decision tree.
The Single Most Important Poker Decision
Choosing the right game is the single most important decision you'll
encounter as a poker player. Choose the wrong game and little else
matters. Choose the right game and you might make money even on
those nights when you're experiencing a below average run of cards.
If you are fortunate enough to play in Southern California, Nevada,
Mississippi, Atlantic City, Foxwoods, or anywhere else where you
have a choice of games, and you routinely gravitate to the same
game without taking time to evaluate your options, you just might
be making your worst poker decision of the evening - even though
you have yet to sit down.
Poker is not mano-a-mano competition like boxing. There's no need
to go up against the brightest and the best to prove you've got
the right stuff. In fact, given your druthers, you ought to seek
out the weakest and the worst. Poker is not about demonstrating
your skills or impressing your opponents at the table. It isn't
the slam dunk competition at the NBA all-star game. It has nothing
to do with winning the most pots, and there's no rule saying you've
got to call to keep 'em honest. You're there for the money. That's
it. The best way to elevate your chances for success is to play
against inept opponents with lots of discretionary income. If they're
ego involved fools, believe that poker is all luck and no skill,
and treat the game like a lottery, so much the better.
Unfortunately, all the imbeciles don't segregate themselves at
one table, waiting for you to come along and take their money. You
have to look around, assess the games and decide which one offers
the best opportunities - and you have to continuously evaluate these
games because what might have been a good game when you first sat
down could be a terrible game two or three hours later. Monitoring
the games available to you is as important as anything else you
can do to maximize your chances for success at the tables.
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Think about this. Would you rather be the best poker player in
the world at a table with the eight other players who are ranked
second through ninth, or would you prefer being a good-but-not-great
player at a table full of fish? I don't know about you, but I'd
much prefer to be the good player who is up against a table full
of passive calling stations. I know I'd win more money - much more,
in fact - than the world's best player could ever win against tough
competition!
Here's why. It's sad but true that most of the money you'll win
playing poker comes not from the brilliance of your own play, but
the stupidity of your opponents. Never mind that you might be the
world's best poker player. You're not all that much better than
those immediately beneath you. And none of your opponents, all of
whom are world class players in their own right, will present much
of a target for you to shoot at. Bad players are another story entirely.
They offer huge targets. They call with weak hands. They stay in
hopes of catching a miracle card. They believe that poker is like
the lottery - all a matter of luck - and it's just a little while
until everything evens out and they get theirs. And their bad play
costs them money day after day. Bad players simply do not realize
the extent to which they bleed away money. The gap between the good
player and the fool is infinitely greater than the gap between the
world's best player and that cluster of other top players behind
him. It's not even close. That mythical journeyman professional
poker player - you know, the kind you aspire to be - may be a mile
away from the world's best, but he's ten miles ahead of the fools.
This article wraps up a four-part series. The objective was to
help you construct a framework for examining the kinds of decisions
you'll face in any poker game, as well as provide some insights
into the kinds of choices that are critical to successful play.
If you're able to identify these critical junctures by building
a warning system of sorts into your thinking, you should automatically
perk up at key moments. In fact, simply being aware of critical
decisions when you encounter them will go a long way toward helping
you grapple successfully with them.
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